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lv-civdef-drone-threat-publ…/docs/01-institutional-gap-analysis.md
2026-05-18 14:05:37 +03:00

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01 — Institutional Gap Analysis

Gaps identified in the as-is algorithm, derived from the public chronology. Each gap is addressed by a specific element of this package and is referenced from resources/mappings.yaml and the diagrams.

ID Gap (as-is) Addressed by (to-be)
G1 No explicit object-classification step — "is it a drone, and how sure are we?" was implicit. Decision_ObjectClassification makes class and confidence explicit before any threat call.
G2 Public-broadcast authority was a single point of failure: one request from NBS Joint Staff was the only trigger, with no timed fallback. Task_AuthorizeBroadcast carries a 3-minute timeout with a proposed escalation to the Crisis Management Centre (KVC). Not yet institutionally agreed.
G3 Message wording was composed under time pressure. Decision_CellBroadcastScope selects a pre-approved template (MSG_*); guardrail GR-4 forbids free-text public messaging.
G4 No bounded, threat-graded time target for dispatch — the 40-minute delay had no SLA to breach. Decision_NotificationUrgency outputs broadcastSlaSeconds; see 03-notification-timing-sla.md.
G5 No automatic detection that the SLA had been missed. Non-interrupting SLA-breach boundary timer on Task_DispatchBroadcastTask_EscalateSla.
G6 Alert footprint was coarse — not matched to the drones' predicted path. Decision_CellBroadcastScope builds the footprint from corridorMunicipalities.
G7 Interception safety criteria were not written down or inspectable. Decision_InterceptionAuthorization gates engagement on positive hostile ID, over-populated-area and debris-zone-clear, in that priority order.
G8 Follow-on civil decisions (school closures, resident enquiries) had no owner. CMMN stage Stage_FieldResponse (HT_MunicipalEnquiries); IZM recorded as a consulted party in 02-raci.md.

Residual / open

  • G2 escalation authority is a proposal. Whether KVC may authorise a public broadcast when NBS Joint Staff is unreachable is an institutional and legal question, not a modelling one, and is flagged for review.
  • SLA values in 03-notification-timing-sla.md are proposed defaults for validation against NBS/VUGD operational reality.