Import UAPF package: lv-civdef-drone-threat-public-address (1).uapf

docs/00-incident-chronology.md

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+# 00 — Incident Chronology: Rēzekne Drone Incident, 7 May 2026
+
+> Non-normative supporting document. Compiled from public reporting
+> (LSM / eng.lsm.lv, Apollo, TV3, Meduza, Defense News, The Globe and Mail,
+> Wikipedia "2026 Ukrainian drone incursions into Baltic states"). Times are
+> local (EEST) and approximate where the public record is approximate.
+
+## Summary
+
+During the night of 6–7 May 2026, several unmanned aerial vehicles entered
+Latvian airspace from the direction of Russia. Two drones came down on Latvian
+territory; one exploded at a fuel-storage facility in Rēzekne (~40 km from the
+Russian border), damaging four empty oil tanks. No casualties. The drones are
+assessed as stray Ukrainian long-range drones diverted off course — Ukraine's
+foreign minister later linked the diversion to Russian electronic-warfare
+jamming. The incident triggered a political crisis: the Defence Minister and,
+days later, the Prime Minister resigned.
+
+## Timeline
+
+| Time (7 May) | Event |
+|---|---|
+| ~03:30 | VUGD receives several 112 calls about a possible fire at the oil-storage facility on Komunāla iela, Rēzekne. |
+| 04:09 | Cell-broadcast warning issued to residents of Ludza and Balvi districts, at NBS request. |
+| 04:43 | Cell-broadcast warning issued to Rēzekne district — roughly 40 minutes after Ludza/Balvi. Rēzekne city residents report having already heard/seen drones overhead about an hour before receiving the alert. |
+| ~05:30 | NBS announces that two UAVs have crashed on Latvian territory; NBS, State Police and VUGD units deploy to the sites. |
+| Morning | One crash site confirmed at the Rēzekne oil-storage base. A second crash site is not yet identified (later associated with the Viļāni area, west of Rēzekne). A possible third drone is believed to have exited Latvian airspace. |
+| Daytime | Flights restricted up to ~6 km altitude in the eastern border region; commercial aviation unaffected. Schools closed in Rēzekne and Ludza; remote learning in Balvi. French NATO Baltic Air Policing jets scrambled during the alert. |
+| ~08:20–08:51 | NBS declares the air-threat alert ended for Balvi, Ludza and Rēzekne districts. |
+| 12:00 | Press conference in Rēzekne (AM / NBS / State Police). |
+| ~18:00 | Eastern-region flight restrictions lifted. |
+| Daytime | Government Crisis Management Council convenes. PM Siliņa states the threat is "a consequence of Russia's war in Ukraine" and asks the Ministry of Defence to clarify why cell-broadcast warnings were issued only after the crash was reported. |
+
+## Aftermath
+
+- **10 May 2026** — Defence Minister Andris Sprūds resigns. He had already
+  survived an April Saeima no-confidence-style vote (43 for dismissal, 50
+  against).
+- **~14 May 2026** — Prime Minister Evika Siliņa resigns; the government falls.
+- The Foreign Ministry summoned Russia's chargé d'affaires; Ukraine's foreign
+  minister later acknowledged the drones were Ukrainian and attributed the
+  diversion to Russian electronic warfare.
+- The Ministry of Defence committed to **review and improve the public
+  notification / inter-institutional information-exchange algorithms**. The
+  Rēzekne incident was designated a central scenario for the "Pilskalns" civil
+  protection exercise.
+
+## Prior incidents in the same series (context)
+
+- **7 September 2024** — A Russian "Shahed"-type drone fell in Gaigalava
+  parish, Rēzekne district. After-action commitments were made then to speed
+  up public notification.
+- **25 March 2026** — A stray Ukrainian drone crashed in Krāslava district
+  (Dobročina); a parallel drone struck a power-station chimney in Estonia.
+- **3 May 2026** — Air-threat cell broadcasts in Alūksne, Balvi, Ludza,
+  Rēzekne and Krāslava (~3.5 h); no drone crossed the border.
+
+The 7 May incident is therefore the **fourth comparable event in ~20 months**,
+which is why the failure is framed publicly as an algorithm/process failure
+rather than a one-off.